Will There Be A Recession? Influencers May Be An Unlikely Indicator

Businesses, economists, and consumers are all wondering if there's a looming recession in the United States (and potentially beyond). One unlikely potential indicator? The strength of the influencer economy. 

Though influencers, sponsored content, and UGC are all relatively new forms of commerce between brands and individuals, they've become a staple part of marketing in many industries. And because of their relationship with fans, content creators — especially those who focus on social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok — are often more tapped into consumer sentiment than traditional marketing teams at brands. 

Both how brands approach working with creators and how those creators' audiences respond to sponsored content are becoming unconventional indicators around consumer spending and confidence in the economy. And though it can be a bit of a "chicken or the egg" scenario, consumer confidence is a major factor in evaluating economic recessions. 

Uncertain Policies Create Uncertain Spending

Before we look at the state of the creator economy's brand partnership sector, it's important to take a quick look at what makes the current economic environment, at least in the United States, a bit different than years past. 

The Great Recession of 2008 was the first time many current online creators experienced economic uncertainty. Though the era largely predated things like social media influencers (after all, platforms like Instagram didn't even exist until October 2010), it was certainly the first major economic downturn that people openly talked about on social media. Once the recovery had really taken hold, the 10 years from 2010 through 2019 that birthed the modern influencer economy saw consistent prosperity and growth.

Then, during the COVID-19 pandemic, global economies and supply chains screeched to a halt. It was unlike anything most people had lived through, and in many cases resulted in strong, coordinated, global efforts to correct course. A few specific niches and industries thrived, while many simply pressed pause until they better understood their own economics. Still, among the uncertainty, there was a sense of unity around the desire to "get things back to normal."

This time, however, much of the damage and uncertainty is acute and self-inflicted. President Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs have rattled confidence both globally and among American consumers. Much of Wall Street apparently didn't believe he would actually do something so reckless with the economy. Despite consistent warning signs, much of "business America" was unprepared for the unfolding turmoil.

Unliked the Great Recession or COVID-19, this economic turmoil could conceivably halt at a moment's notice. However, as data is now starting to reflect the consequences of these policies, it seems there is at least some damage that won't be mitigated in the short-term. 

Brands Are Pulling Back On Influencers — And Other Marketing

The good news is that this year, 76 percent of brands are allocating marketing money for content creators, according to a yearly report from Influencer Marketing Hub. That includes nearly 64 percent of brands who specifically plan to work with influencers. The bad news is that 76 percent number is actually down 10 percent from the year prior. 

And while more than 80 percent of brands affirm that influencer marketing is highly effective, only 12 percent of those brands plan to allocate more than half of their budget toward influencer marketing — half as many as the year prior.

But it's not just sponsored content and influencers. Many companies say they plan on rolling back spending on hiring agencies and other marketing expenditures. Overall marketing spend has stagnated in 2025, which is technically better than the decline they were seeing the previous two years. But marketing spend isn't near pre-pandemic levels. Perhaps the only silver lining is that paid media — which includes paying for digital advertising space and utilizing things like UGC — is up 11 percent over the previous years, whereas most things are down. 

While influencer marketing is a consistent part of most business's marketing spend, it's still harder to measure than traditional ad spend. Yes, it ads brand lift that you simply can't get through any other type of marketing. But companies pulling back on this expenditure certainly points to the type of purse tightening that accompanies gloomy economic outlooks. 

What Audiences Are Saying

What makes the influencer angle particularly interesting, however, is that creators typically have a much more organic relationship with their audience than a brand might with its customers. And as anxiety around the economy and spending power increases, influencers are re-thinking the way they present sponsored content in their posts. 

For one, that means potentially presenting their circumstances in a more humble way. Elements of influencer culture still revolve around the idea that when an influencer sells a product, they're selling a lifestyle associated with it. But in many cases, influencers live modest, middle-income lifestyles and receive the products they're selling. (In fact, 90 percent of influencers earn less than $50,000 per year, according to Axios). In other words, bragging about being treating to four-figure meals at music festivals may not go over as well now as it would have during boom times.

Now more than ever, luxury is less concerning to audiences than things like security and freedom. In April, 73 percent of Americans said they felt financially stressed, two-thirds of whom said the tariffs specifically have them worried. When you open up an app to unwind, escape, or engage, the last thing most users want is to be reminded of their daily financial stress. 

That's why comment sections are filling up less with admiration and jealousy and more with lamentations and, in some cases, criticism for content that may seem tone deaf in the current environment. 

How Influencers Pivot Their Messaging 

Social media consultant Peyton Knight told NPR that consumers are losing trust in influencers who can't seem to read the room. "The consumer is what really dictates what's happening in the market," Knight says. "And I think the consumer has pushed back and said, 'Enough.'" 

Knights says ultimately the influencers who will weather this storm will make the kind of content that made people love them in the first place. "These people actually create the content I want to consume, that is, in some way, shape or form, is bettering my life or making me interested in a topic," Knight says. 

Content creator and marketing strategist Sam Ogborn tells NPR that creators should remember how they felt during 2008 or 2020 and embrace a slightly different voice or approach to consumerism. "It makes sense that a lot of people now watch that kind of content and find ways to be scrappy in their own lives," Ogborn says. "Because they don't want to just buy a new item anymore and pay the cost of the tariff."

They'll want to communicate that to brands, too. Or be a bit more intentional with the types of products they choose to promote — and how they promote them. 

But as influencers see a notable change in their audience's sentiment towards consuming, and as companies tighten the purse more on their marketing expenditures, experts see another unique indicator of rocky times ahead.